Analysis

Market regime analysis and conditional performance

Paper-trade data not flowing yet. This page shows reference values from the pre-pivot research era.

Live Mathematical Analysis

Real-time price analysis via Coinbase — computing 30+ math features

Disconnected

BTC / USD

Spot

--

Ticks

0

Window

0 / 500

Session Return

+0.0000%

Waiting for price data...

Connecting to Coinbase WebSocket + REST fallback

Chronos Range Prediction Accuracy

How close predicted high/low ranges land to observed ranges. Only evaluates rows with observed data (5 min+ old).

No observed ranges yet

Waiting for the first batch of predictions to age into the 5-minute observation window.

Predicted vs Actual Bands

Chronos predicted range (blue ribbon), current price (solid), and observed extremes (dashed)

Waiting for observed data

Ribbon fills in once predictions age into the 5-minute observation window.

Accuracy Scatter

Confidence vs range error — green dots are predictions where the high was hit

No scored predictions yet

Scatter fills in once the accuracy view backfills (5 min+ cadence).

Live BTC Price

Most recent ticks from market_pulse

No ticks landed yet

Chart fills in once the ticker service is streaming market_pulse.

Volatility Timeline

Realized volatility over the last ~300 ticks — thin line is 10s, thick line is 60s

No volatility data yet

Timeline fills in once the ticker service writes realized_vol fields.

Performance by Volatility

How the bot performs in different volatility environments

RegimeWin RateAvg PnLTradesHealth
Low Vol42.8%+0.4 bps108
Med Vol39.5%+-2.1 bps134
High Vol37.2%+-4.3 bps70
Low Vol
+0.4
Med Vol
+-2.1
High Vol
+-4.3

Trend vs Range

Performance when BTC is trending vs consolidating

RegimeWin RateAvg PnLTradesHealth
Strong Trend43.1%+1.2 bps82
Weak Trend39.8%+-2.4 bps128
Ranging37.9%+-3.1 bps102
Strong Trend
+1.2
Weak Trend
+-2.4
Ranging
+-3.1

BTC Correlation

r = 0.53 Moderate

Bot returns vs BTC price movement -- lower correlation = more independent alpha

Volume Regime Performance

How trade volume conditions affect bot profitability

Low volume weakness: Only +8.4 bps avg PnL during low-volume periods (72.1% WR). Consider reducing position size or filtering entries during low-volume hours.